Social Calculator
Ask a question. We’ll make a prediction.
The Social Calculator makes predictions and offers recommendations based on a combination of Bayesian analysis and machine learning.
We collect cross-platform digital behavioral data from platforms like Instagram, Facebook, Tik Tok, iMessage, and WhatsApp. Then, we categorize the data, create hypotheses, assign prior probabilities, and use ML to develop estimates based on past experiences.
The foundation of the Social Calculator is rooted in Bayes’ Theorem, which is used to predict conditional probabilities. For more information, see Our Formula.
Ask the Social Calculator your most pressing questions:
Is my partner cheating on me?
Did that couple break up?
Is my friend avoiding me?
Will they break my heart?
Are they seeing someone new?
Are they lying to me?
Did they see my post?
Did they make plans without me?
Step I: We Collect Data
BayeSim collects publicly available data on you and your connections and stores this data in our centralized database.
Step II: You Work with a Team Member to Manually Define Priors
You’re unique, and that’s why we work with you to manually set your priors. Your priors differ from other people’s based on your experiences.
Manually setting your priors allows you to understand why our model returns certain probabilities. Plus, this gives you flexibility to adjust them over time as we track your data and you update your beliefs
Step III: You Ask a Question, and We Run the Model
Recommendation: Do not confront your friend. Let BayeSim generate more insights before assuming she is giving you the cold shoulder
Response: The likelihood that your friend is ignoring you given that her response to your text message was delayed is 12.2%, suggesting that she was busy rather than ignoring you
For instance, your friend’s response to your text might be delayed, and you want to ask: Is she ignoring me?
